The Myth of Facts
Facts. The word is used as if they come from an oracle.
Often, they don’t. Often, when you hear “the fact of the matter is…”, you should check your wallet. Fast.
There are facts, and there are facts. There are indeed 332 million people who live in the US. As of today, Apple is worth $2.5 trillion. Woman really do spend more than twice as much on shoes as men do. These things are countable and observable and unambiguous.
But Is it really true that more people prefer the taste of Pepsi than Coke? If 50% of people in a survey say that they will buy a product configured and priced in a certain way, will they? Are woman actually attracted to the kind of man they say they are attracted to?
Uh, maybe not. These “facts” come from asking people questions. The way that you ask these questions can critically influence the answer. When and where you ask these questions can critically influence the answer; so can the order of questions asked. These facts are not facts. They are artifacts of a research approach that often is designed to produce the answer you think you already know, which is the conventional wisdom, which is the most digestible answer, which is the answer that your audience really wants. So you give it to them, because that is in your self-interest.
Yes, it is true that more people prefer Pepsi in taste tests than Coke, even though Coke outsells Pepsi by 2 to 1. Pepsi is sweeter than Coke, and if you just taste a sip, it tastes better to most people. However, if you drink a whole glass, that sugary taste becomes less appealing, and the more balanced taste of Coke wins out. And really, how much have you learned from a taste test, knowing that there are a whole range of deeper emotions around packaging and childhood memories and association and the FEELING you get consuming a product? Not much. The taste test “fact”, on its own, says almost nothing.
The association between stated preference and actual behavior is shockingly low, in any case. More than 60% of consumers participating in an in-home test of a new appliance said they were likely or very likely to purchase the appliance in the next three months. Eight months later, only 12% had made the purchase. When asked later, most consumers who said they would buy but didn’t’ couldn’t explain their behavior.
In another interesting experiment, woman were asked to describe their ideal man, and then were unknowingly recorded at a social event approaching men they did not know, with researchers comparing the characteristics of men approached with those the same woman reported on a survey as appealing. Suffice to say that the relationship between stated preference and actual behavior was low (probably shouldn’t say more!)
Even if you do everything perfectly, what people say and what people do are often very different. 95% of thought occurs in the unconscious mind; you aren’t even aware you are thinking. When asked questions about why they do things, and how they would respond to a certain situation, people generally answer from their conscious mind. Those thoughts are generally more accessible, and they are often less personal, less emotional, more rational. In other words, exactly how you want to talk to a stranger.
In the real world, things are different. If 95% of thought is in your unconscious mind, it is probably true that 95% of your decisions are made there too; the conscious mind just exists to rationalize that decision.
The lesson? Always distinguish between real facts and stated intentions that masquerade as facts. And probe hard to get deeper into your customers mind. When you are in a region with a lot of snakes, and you see something coiled under the bush, your unconscious mind (images and associations stored years ago) is what drives your behavior; you have no time to think. It usually guides you pretty well, and to really understand customer’s, you have to try to get there.